Long-term research ensures data trends lead to real progress

Breast Cancer Trials has welcomed the latest Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIWH) breast cancer projections released today, noting that there have been changes in the methodology used to calculate the data, suggesting caution when comparing data from year to year. 

This year, the AIHW’s updated projections show fewer diagnosed cases of breast cancer each day, from 58 to 56 people, which is over 20,000 people expected to be diagnosed in 2025. The five-year survival rate has improved from 75% in 1987–1991 to 93% in 2017–2021.

However, for the first time, data from 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic have been included in the projection calculations for some cancers. With breast screening participation falling during the pandemic, many cancers were missed or diagnosed later, so this decline reflects pandemic-related disruptions to screening and diagnosis, not a true reduction in disease.  

In addition, the methodology used by the AIHW in calculating the yearly predictions has changed from last year to this year, so caution must be exercised in comparing 2025 and 2024 figures.  

These new figures must not be misinterpreted as a sign to slow down. Funding must continue to support clinical trials and research that can reduce the toll of an estimated 3,300 deaths each year through better, more effective treatment options and the next generation of discoveries. 

Changes in incidence and mortality rates can obscure the underlying reality: breast cancer remains the most common cancer among Australian women, and accounts for approximately 27% of the estimated cancers diagnosed in females.  

Breast cancer is also the most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia for persons aged 20 to 39 and persons aged 40 to 59. 

The COVID-19 pandemic showed how vulnerable health systems are to disruption. Ongoing investment in research ensures Breast Cancer Trials can adapt treatments, maintain trial access, and protect patients even when circumstances change.  

With continued community and government support, Breast Cancer Trials can keep leading world-class research that turns discoveries into survival. Every donation, every partnership, and every trial brings us closer to ending deaths from breast cancer, so that no more lives are cut short.  

Data source: Cancer data in Australia, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 8th October 2025

Contact: BCT Media & PR Lead, Sara McGregor – 0424 591 241 or sara.mcgregor@bctrials.org.au

Our life-saving breast cancer research is only possible thanks to the continued generosity of our supporters.

Please help continue this vital work by making a donation today.